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As I sit here watching the Idaho Vandals struggle through another tough conference game, I can't help but wonder if this season could still turn around. Having followed coach Alex Gavina's career trajectory from his days coaching Kia in the PBA to his recent stint with the Taiwan Mustangs, I've noticed a pattern that gives me both concern and hope for this Vandals squad. The man clearly understands basketball at a deep level, but he's consistently faced what I'd call the "revolving door problem" - that constant player turnover that prevents any coach from establishing the culture they envision.
Let me be honest here - I've been tracking Gavina's teams for years, and the pattern is unmistakable. During his time with Kia in the Philippine Basketball Association, he had to deal with what sources told me was approximately 60% roster turnover between seasons. That's not just challenging - it's nearly impossible to build consistent team chemistry with those numbers. I remember watching his Taiwan Mustangs team last year and thinking how different they looked from month to month as players came and went. The fundamental issue isn't Gavina's coaching ability - it's this constant rebuilding process that keeps resetting team development.
Looking at the current Vandals roster, I see similar challenges but also some promising differences. The team currently stands at 7-15 overall and 2-7 in Big Sky conference play, which honestly looks pretty grim on paper. But having watched their last five games, I've noticed something shifting. They've been competitive in games they would have been blown out in earlier this season. Just last week, they took Montana to overtime before falling by three points, and they led Northern Colorado for thirty-five minutes before a late collapse. These aren't moral victories, but they're signs of growth that someone like me who's followed Gavina's career recognizes as meaningful.
What gives me genuine hope is that Gavina finally seems to have his core players buying into his system. Sophomore guard Terren Frank has started every game this season, averaging 14.3 points per game while shooting 42% from three-point range. Junior forward EJ Neal has become that defensive stopper every Gavina team eventually develops, averaging 1.8 steals and 4.5 defensive rebounds per contest. These aren't just statistics - they represent the kind of foundational pieces that Gavina's previous teams often lacked for extended periods. I'm particularly impressed with how the team's assist numbers have climbed from 11.2 per game in November to 15.8 in January, indicating better ball movement and player connectivity.
Still, the challenges are real and familiar to anyone who's studied Gavina's coaching history. The Vandals have struggled with consistency in their half-court offense, something that plagued his Taiwan Mustangs team as well. They're shooting just 42% from the field as a team and turn the ball over 14.3 times per game - numbers that need significant improvement for any serious conference run. But here's what many analysts miss - Gavina's teams traditionally improve dramatically in February. His Kia teams in the PBA consistently posted winning records in the second half of seasons despite early struggles, and I'm seeing similar patterns developing here.
The real question isn't whether the Vandals can win the conference - let's be realistic, that ship has probably sailed. The meaningful question is whether they can build enough momentum to become a dangerous opponent in the conference tournament and lay groundwork for next season. From my perspective, having watched how Gavina operates, I believe they can. His teams typically peak at the right time, and with five of their final nine games at home in the Kibbie Dome, there's a genuine opportunity here. I'm particularly optimistic about their February 15th matchup against Sacramento State - a team they lost to by just four points earlier this season.
What many fans don't realize is that culture building isn't about immediate results - it's about establishing habits and identities that pay dividends over time. Gavina's Taiwan Mustangs started slowly but finished their season winning seven of their final ten games. His Kia teams developed reputations for being tough, disciplined opponents regardless of their record. I'm already seeing similar characteristics emerging with these Vandals - the way they huddle during timeouts, how they communicate on defense, the unselfish ball movement in their offensive sets. These might seem like small things, but to someone like me who's followed coaching development across different leagues, they're the building blocks of sustainable success.
So can the Idaho Vandals basketball team make a comeback this season? From my vantage point, they're already in the process of doing so. The wins might not fully reflect it yet, but the foundation Gavina has been trying to build throughout his career is finally taking root in Moscow. They may not storm through the conference tournament, but I'd bet good money they'll upset someone who underestimates them. More importantly, they're establishing the kind of program identity that could make them legitimate contenders next season. Sometimes a comeback isn't about climbing from last to first - it's about building something that lasts, and frankly, that's what I believe we're finally seeing with Gavina's Vandals.
As I sit here analyzing trade statistics between Saudi Arabia and the Philippines, I can't help but draw parallels to the dynamic basketball scene back home.
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